Background
Starting in the 1970s, the nature of job opportunities in the U.S. began to change fundamentally (Autor, 2010). According to economist Joseph Stiglitz (2012), “…middle-class jobs — requiring a moderate level of skills, like autoworkers’ jobs — [have been disappearing] relative to those at the bottom, requiring few skills, and those at the top, requiring greater skill levels” (p. 11). This phenomenon is known as “job polarization” and is often cited as a contributing factor to income inequality in the U.S. (Autor, 2010; Katz & Murphy, 1992).
In their 2007 research report, “America’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs,” economists Harry Holzer and Robert Lerman define middle-skill jobs as those that “generally require some significant education and training beyond high school but less than a bachelor’s degree” (p. 8). To facilitate their analysis, Holzer and Lerman classified broad occupational categories by skill level as follows:
- High-skill occupations: Those in the professional/technical and managerial categories.
- Low-skill occupations: Those in the service and agricultural categories.
- Middle-skill occupations: Those in the other categories, including clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving.
These skill classifications were determined based on the average education level and/or training of workers in those broad occupational categories. However, educational and training requirements can vary significantly within these broad categories. As such, our analysis of occupational skill levels uses education and training requirements for detailed occupations whenever possible. In particular, we focus on educational requirements as they typically present a more burdensome barrier to occupational entry.
Job Polarization in New York State
Using Holzer and Lerman’s (2007) broad occupational skill categories, we see that job polarization has occurred in New York State. Figure 1 shows that the share of workers employed in middle-skill jobs declined by 10.5 percentage points from 2003 to 2022. At the same time, the share of workers employed in low- and high-skill jobs increased by 3.4 and 7.1 percentage points, respectively.
Figure 1. A Declining Share of Middle-Skill Jobs Points to Polarization in New York State
Change in Share of Occupational Employment by Skill Level, New York State (2003 – 2022)
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS).
As shown in Table 1, workers with bachelor’s degrees typically earn better wages and experience higher employment rates than those who do not. Yet, over half (54.2%) of prime working-age New Yorkers (ages 25-54) did not have a four-year college degree in 2022. Therefore, these workers may be ineligible for high-pay, high-skill occupations, and may find it difficult to advance in their careers. However, “opportunity occupations” can be a good way forward.
Table 1. Workers With Bachelor’s Degrees or Higher Tend to Have Better Labor Market Outcomes Than Those Who Do Not
Unemployment Rates and Weekly Earnings (Full-Time Wage and Salary Workers), Age 25 and Over by Educational Attainment, New York State (2023)
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Source: Current Population Survey (CPS).
What is an Opportunity Occupation?
Researchers at several Federal Reserve Banks coined the term “opportunity occupation.” They defined an “opportunity occupation” as a job that meets two basic requirements:
- Typically requires less than a bachelor’s degree for entry.
- Pays above the national annual median wage (adjusted to reflect local living costs) (Wardrip, Fee, Nelson, & Andreason, 2015; Fee, Nelson, & Wardrip, 2019).
In this report, we will look at opportunity occupations throughout New York State and its 10 labor market regions. However, due to data limitations, we modify slightly the Federal Reserve’s opportunity occupation criteria to:
- Typically requires less than a bachelor’s degree for entry.
- Pays above the area annual median wage.
- In addition, we impose a third requirement: the occupation must be projected to experience employment growth between 2020 and 2030.
In other words, an occupation’s projected rate of growth must exceed zero, according to the New York State Department of Labor’s 2020-30 Long-Term Occupational Employment Projections. The purpose of this requirement is to exclude occupations that are projected to decline or experience no growth.
We also differentiate between “fast-growing” and “slower-growing” opportunity occupations. Fast-growing opportunity occupations are those projected to grow faster than the overall growth rate for the area. Slower-growing opportunity occupations are those with projected growth rates greater than zero, but less than or equal to the overall growth rate for the area.
Why are Opportunity Occupations Important?
Opportunity occupations may afford increased economic mobility to workers with less than a bachelor’s degree. These occupations pay well, have relatively low barriers to entry in terms of skills, and are projected to be in demand. By identifying and promoting opportunity occupations, we hope to help jobseekers achieve better labor market outcomes, as well as assist policymakers, educators, and workforce development professionals in their efforts to bridge skills gaps, reduce income inequality, and foster inclusive economic growth.
Opportunity Occupations in New York State
Statewide Analysis
As shown in Table 2, nearly 1.5 million New Yorkers were employed in opportunity occupations in 2020, accounting for 15.2% of the state’s total employment. Within opportunity employment, about 1.1 million workers were in slower-growing occupations while roughly 0.4 million were in fast-growing occupations. Employment in slower-growing opportunity occupations comprised 11.4% of the statewide total, while fast-growing opportunity occupations comprised 3.8%.
Table 2. Nearly 1.5 Million New Yorkers Worked in an Opportunity Occupation in 2020
Share of Total Employment by Occupation Type, New York State, 2020 and 2030
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Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Employment in middle-skill jobs is projected to grow by 17.5% from 2020 to 2030. However, consistent with our findings on job polarization in New York State (see Figure 1), the relative share of employment in middle-skill jobs is projected to decrease by 2.3 percentage points over the ten-year period.
At the same time, low-skill jobs are projected to grow by 3.6 percentage points, with all growth occurring in lower-paying occupations (i.e., those that pay less than the statewide median wage of $54,276). As a result, the relative share of employment in opportunity occupations is projected to decline by 0.5 percentage points to 14.7% in 2030. Not surprisingly, the declining relative share of opportunity employment is expected to occur in slower-growing occupations. The share of employment in fast-growing opportunity occupations is projected to grow by 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% in 2030.
Figure 2. Fast-Growing Opportunity Occupations Are Expected to Outpace the All-Occupation Growth Rate by 11.3 Percentage Points
Projected Employment Growth by Occupation Type, New York State (2020 – 2030)
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-30 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
As shown in Figure 2, employment in fast-growing opportunity occupations is projected to grow at a faster rate (36.3%) than the statewide rate for all occupations (25.0%) from 2020-30. On the other hand, employment in slower-growing opportunity occupations is projected to grow at a slower rate (15.3%) than the statewide rate for all occupations over the same period. With slower-growth jobs accounting for the majority share of opportunity occupations, the overall growth rate for all opportunity occupations (20.6%) is 4.4 percentage points below the statewide rate for all occupations.
Figure 3. Slower-Growing Opportunity Occupations Tend to Require Higher Levels of Educational Attainment for Entry Relative to Their Fast-Growing Counterparts
Relative Share of Employment by Typical Education Required for Entry and Occupation Type, New York State (2020)
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Slower-growing opportunity occupations typically require higher levels of educational attainment for entry relative to fast-growing opportunity occupations. As shown in Figure 3, nearly a third (31.5%) of slower-growth opportunity employment is in occupations that typically require education beyond high school. In comparison, 12.4% of fast-growth opportunity employment is in occupations that typically require education beyond high school. Note though that per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Measures of Education and Training (2023), many opportunity occupations require either additional training, experience, or both, beyond the formal educational requirements.
Figure 4. Slower-Growing Opportunity Occupations Tend to Pay More Than Their Fast-Growing Counterparts
Annual Median Wages by Occupation Type, New York State (2020*)
*Wage information has been updated to the first quarter of 2023 by making cost-of-living adjustments
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Annual median wage data show the importance of opportunity occupations and the earnings potential they can afford. Per Figure 4, the annual median wage across all opportunity occupations is $70,625, which is 30.1% higher than the annual median wage for all occupations ($54,276). When we break out opportunity employment into fast- and slower-growing occupations, we see that the annual median wage for slower-growing opportunity occupations ($71,604) is higher than of fast-growing opportunity occupations ($68,063). This finding aligns with our findings related to the differences in typical education requirements between the two groups.
Figure 5. Opportunity Occupations Are Represented in Nearly All Major Occupational Groups
Number of Opportunity Occupations by Major Occupational Group* and Occupation Type, New York State
*2-digit SOC code
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Figure 5 shows that opportunity occupations are represented in all major occupational groups except Community and Social Service (SOC 21) and Educational Instruction and Library (SOC 25) occupations. Almost half (44.1%) of the 152 statewide opportunity occupation titles are in the top three occupational groups: Construction and Extraction (SOC 47); Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (SOC 49); and Transportation and Material Moving occupations (SOC 53), which have 28, 22, and 17 titles, respectively.
Notably, all the opportunity occupations represented in the Architecture and Engineering (SOC 17); Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance (SOC 37); Life, Physical, and Social Science (SOC 19); Legal (SOC 23); Computer and Mathematical (SOC 15); Farming, Fishing, and Forestry (SOC 45); and Business and Financial Operations (SOC 13) occupational groups are slower-growing. The Personal Care and Service (SOC 39), Healthcare Support (SOC 31), and Food Preparation and Serving Related occupational groups are comprised entirely of fast-growing opportunity occupations.
Figure 6. Construction and Extraction Occupations Have the Most Opportunity Employment of Any Major Occupational Group
Total Opportunity Employment and Share of Opportunity Employment by Major Occupational Group* and Occupation Type, New York State
*2-digit SOC code
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
The Construction and Extraction (SOC 47) occupational group contains not only the most opportunity titles (28), but also the most opportunity employment (237,130), as shown in Figure 6. Within the Construction and Extraction occupational group, nearly four out of five jobs are in slower-growing opportunity occupations.
Despite the Sales and Related (SOC 49) occupational group containing only seven opportunity titles, it ranks second for total opportunity employment (226,810). Within the group, about three out of four jobs are in slower-growing opportunity occupations. Similarly, the Office and Administrative Support (SOC 53) occupational group – which contains just four opportunity titles – ranks third for total opportunity employment (171,080).
Table 3. The Top 10 Opportunity Occupations Represent a Diverse Set of Jobs Spanning a Variety of Disciplines
Top 10 Opportunity Occupations Ranked by 2020 Employment, New York State
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*Wage information has been updated to the first quarter of 2023 by making cost-of-living adjustments.
**Key:
- NC: No formal educational credential
- HS: High school diploma or equivalent
- PS: Postsecondary non-degree award
- SC: Some college, no degree
- AA: Associate’s degree
- BA: Bachelor’s degree
- MA: Master’s degree
- PD: Doctoral or professional degree
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-30 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
As shown in Table 3, the top 10 opportunity occupations span a variety of disciplines, fully reflecting the immense economic diversity of New York State. The occupations include law enforcement as well as skilled trades, sales, and computer occupations, among others.
Seven of ten occupations on the list have no formal educational requirement other than high school. The highest level of formal education required is for Computer User Support Specialists, which typically requires at least some postsecondary education.
Table 4. Several of the Top 10 Fast-Growing Opportunity Occupations Are in the Skilled Trades
Top 10 Fast-Growing Opportunity Occupations Ranked by 2020 Employment, New York State
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*Wage information has been updated to the first quarter of 2023 by making cost-of-living adjustments.
**Key:
- NC: No formal educational credential
- HS: High school diploma or equivalent
- PS: Postsecondary non-degree award
- SC: Some college, no degree
- AA: Associate’s degree
- BA: Bachelor’s degree
- MA: Master’s degree
- PD: Doctoral or professional degree
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-30 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
As shown in Table 4, none of the top 10 fast-growing opportunity occupations require formal education beyond high school for entry. Three occupations are first-line supervisor positions, so a good way in presumably would be through the ranks of the supervised. In addition, three skilled-trades occupations rank among the top 10: Electricians, Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists, and Industrial Machinery Mechanics. As many things change, the skilled trades affording good opportunities without needing a four-year college degree is one thing that remains the same.
Table 5. The Top 10 Slower-Growing Opportunity Occupations Typically Require Higher Levels of Education, on Average, Relative to Their Fast-Growing Counterparts
Top 10 Slower-Growing Opportunity Occupations Ranked by 2020 Employment, New York State
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*Wage information has been updated to the first quarter of 2023 by making cost-of-living adjustments.
**Key:
- NC: No formal educational credential
- HS: High school diploma or equivalent
- PS: Postsecondary non-degree award
- SC: Some college, no degree
- AA: Associate’s degree
- BA: Bachelor’s degree
- MA: Master’s degree
- PD: Doctoral or professional degree
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-30 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Table 5 shows four of the top 10 slower-growing opportunity occupations usually require formal education beyond high school. The Paralegals and Legal Assistants occupation requires the highest level of formal education: an associate’s degree. The top occupation on the list is a supervisory title, which, as before, implies that joining the ranks of the supervised is the best way to gain entry.
Regional Analysis
As shown in Table 6, the regional share of employment in opportunity occupations ranged from 18.5% on Long Island to 12.0% in New York City. Every region of the state except New York City has a share above that of the state (15.2%).
Table 6. Only One Region Has a Higher Share of Fast-Growing Opportunity Occupations Than the State as a Whole
Share of Employment in Opportunity Occupations by Area (2020)
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Note: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-30 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
Only one region, Mohawk Valley (5.6%), has a higher share of fast-growing opportunity occupations than the state as a whole. The share of fast-growing opportunity occupations ranged from 1.6% in the Southern Tier to 5.6% in the Mohawk Valley.
As might be expected given that slower-growing opportunity occupations comprise the bulk of all opportunity occupations, the results are a lot closer to what we saw for opportunity occupations than what we saw for fast-growing opportunity occupations. Only two regions, Mohawk Valley (11.2%) and New York City (9.3%), have shares lower than that of the state (11.4%). The Mohawk Valley’s share is close to that of the state as a whole whereas New York City’s share is 2.2 percentage points below that of the state.
Given that New York City is very much the economic powerhouse of New York State and is home to abundant economic opportunities, New York City’s lower percent of opportunity occupations struck us as worthy of further investigation.
The New York City Anomaly
Looking at the overall top 20 largest occupations in New York City ranked by employment in 2020, as shown in Table 7, was instructive.
Table 7. Job Polarization Has Been More Acute in New York City Compared to Other New York State Labor Market Regions
Top 20 Largest Occupations by 2020 Employment, New York City Region
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*Wage information has been updated to the first quarter of 2023 by making cost-of-living adjustments.
**Key:
- NC: No formal educational credential
- HS: High school diploma or equivalent
- PS: Postsecondary non-degree award
- SC: Some college, no degree
- AA: Associate’s degree
- BA: Bachelor’s degree
- MA: Master’s degree
- PD: Doctoral or professional degree
Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2020-2030 NYS Long-Term Occupational Projections, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), and 2022 1-Year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS).
The results show that many of New York City’s top 20 occupations, which account for over a third (35.5%) of the city’s total employment, are either low-skill, low-paying jobs or high-skill, high-paying jobs. Twelve occupations typically require a high school diploma or less for entry, while eight require a bachelor’s degree or higher. Seven of the eight high-skill jobs have six figure annual median wages and 10 of the 12 low-skill jobs pay less than the all-occupation median wage ($63,416).
The two low-skill jobs that have a median annual wage above that of city’s all-occupation median wage are Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants ($84,618) and First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers ($83,073). Of those two occupations, only First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers meet the criteria to be considered an opportunity occupation as the Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants workforce in New York City is projected to decline by 10.1% from 2020 to 2030.
This doesn’t mean that opportunity occupations can’t be found in the city; they can be, just like in the other regions. However, it may be indicative of the acuteness of job polarization in the city relative to other New York State labor market regions.
Please see the appendix for more information on opportunity occupations in New York State’s 10 labor market regions.